Crude Oil Drifts Lower Despite Inventories Draw

Posted July 14, 2017

Demand accelerated in the second quarter, growing to 97.4 million barrels a day - 1.5 million barrels a day faster than in the second quarter of 2016. "Further growth of 1.4 mb/d is foreseen for 2018, with global demand reaching 99.4 mb/d".

Oil dipped on Thursday on persistent worries about oversupply, but strong Chinese imports and signs that USA storage tanks are gradually being drained offered some support to prices.

Despite the ongoing supply overhang, there are signs of a gradual reduction in the global glut.

This will leave less space in the market for OPEC oil, the group concluded. Any warm up in temperatures at this point will heat up natural gas prices that may see storage come in at the end of the season at the lowest level in five years.

According to him, there were a lot of reasons for the situation, including "a lot of aggressive shale production, and obviously barrels coming out from Nigeria and Libya because of the exemption".

As oil price weakens, so does high yield, and vice versa, but as Warren Estey, head of America's natural resources at Deutsche Bank sustained, increased volatility means less room for errors when markets become more efficient, even if the eventual profits can be sky high.

Anyway, no further oil output cuts are expected for the July meeting of the ministerial committee set up to monitor compliance with the OPEC-non-OPEC deal.

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The meeting is scheduled for July 24 in St. St. Petersburg.

OPEC members Libya and Nigeria were exempted from the cuts because of years of unrest that have undermined their oil output. But at 495.4 million barrels, USA crude oil inventories were in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Libya and Nigeria contributed the most to the 393,000-bpd increase in the cartel's total crude output in June compared to May. Canada and Brazil are likely to boost production as well. However, the geopolitical uncertainty could quickly cut production levels once again.

As early as 2016, Mercuria, one of the biggest energy traders, acquired a crude supply and marketing business that was the key to more than 150 new shale producers all across the US, Bloomberg sources reported.

Many nations have such an abundance of it that their economies are completely reliant on oil, making them heavily vulnerable to price fluctuations.

By the IEA's estimate, it's not just three members undermining OPEC's efforts.

"While the industry has adapted to lower oil prices, through increased efficiency and cost deflation, OPEC budget needs have been sticky, making it hard for them to lower their fiscal break-evens", the analysts write. We will continue to be very active.